Thursday, August 1, 2019

Challenges to Incumbent Presidents



This year former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld announced he was running for President in the Republican primary against President Donald Trump. He may not be alone. Former Ohio Governor John Kasich is reportedly considering running as well. The last time an incumbent President was challenged by someone from within his own party, was 1992.  That was when former Nixon and Reagan aide Pat Buchannan challenged President George H. W. Bush.
Since 1916, when the presidential primary system began there has only been a few times an incumbent has been challenged.  Historically speaking, no President has won re-election, even if he successfully fends off a challenger in the primary, he loses in the November general election. There has, however, been one time when this rule didn't hold true.  In 1940, incumbent Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt. was challenged by his vice-president.  Consequently, the vice-president was replaced at the convention.  Below we will look at each of those primaries.


The Challenges

Year President Challenger Challenger #2
2020 Donald Trump (R) Bill Weld (R) ---
1992 George H. W. Bush (R) Pat Buchannon (R) ----
1980 Jimmy Carter (D) Ted Kennedy (D) ----
1976 Gerald Ford (R) Ronald Reagan (R) ----
1968 Lyndon B Johnson (D) Eugene McCarthy (D) Robert Kennedy (D)
1952 Harry Truman (D) Estes Kefauver (D) ----
1940 Franklin Roosevelt (D) John Garner (D) ----

2020 - Taking on President Trump

The Republican primary has yet to begin, but already there has been a candidate declare himself as a candidate in the GOP primary. That challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Weld, which some are saying that Weld won't be a serious challenge.  The fact is they don't know, but they are saying this because of a claim that no serious primary challenge has been overcome by the incumbent.  In other words, they are saying that President Trump will easily win in the 2020 General election.  While I have my own personal view regarding the election, I am staying neutral, in my writing.  In short, I am taking a wait and see attitude.  Though, I do think it will be a fascinating election to watch. Will the Republicans retain the White House, or will the Democrats regain control?  Who will the president be, come 2021?


1992 - Wins all 50 States in Primary, but loses in November

George H. W. Bush, was the President this year. Considered by some as a third term, to former President Reagan's presidency. His challenger former Nixon aide Pat Buchannon. Buchannon never won a single primary but drew enough descent that the father of a future two-term President, lost his reelection bid to Bill Clinton.








1980 - the President, Falls to an Actor 

Jimmy Carter had been elected President four years earlier against the nations only unelected President. He was relatively unknown when he was elected. In 1980, however, he was unpopular and he was challenged by Ted Kennedy. Kennedy the brother of the late President John Kennedy and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, ended up losing to Carter in the primary. However, Carter lost to former California Governor Ronald Reagan.






1976 - Future President Falls to the Incumbent

The 1976 Republican primary saw Ronald Reagan come very close to denying renomination to Gerald Ford.  President Ford had been appointed as vice-president after the resignation of Spiro Agnew, then ascended to the presidency when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974. Ford went on to lose narrowly to Jimmy Carter in the general election, and Reagan succeeded Carter four years later.







1968 - Incumbent Withdraws After Narrow Primary Win

This is one I debated with myself, whether to actually include. Even though it is included in my research on the topic, the President actually withdrew from campaigning and was replaced by his Vice-President.
That year, Minnesota senator Eugene McCarthy held Lyndon Johnson to a surprisingly narrow victory in New Hampshire; with polls showing McCarthy would likely defeat Johnson in the next major primary in Wisconsin, and with LBJ focused on the Vietnam War’s damage to his legacy, he folded his tent. With his withdrawal, and the assassination of Robert Kennedy his Vice-President Hubert Humphrey jumped in the race and won the Democratic nomination, but the Democrats lost the White House.



1952 - Incumbent Loses New Hampshire and Withdraws

In 1952, Harry Truman was running for reelection, Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver beat Truman in the New Hampshire primary which, lead to Truman deciding not to continue to seek a full term.









1940 - the President versus the Vice-President

The 1940 Democratic Presidential primaries saw incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt was selected, as the nominee through a series of primary elections and caucuses culminating in the 1940 Democratic National Convention held from July 15 to July 18, 1940, in Chicago, Illinois. He faced the opposition of Vice President John Garner in the primaries. Garner lost the primaries and during the convention was excluded from vice-presidential nomination in favor of Henry Wallace.




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Sources:
  1. Washington Post
  2. Business Insider
  3. CBS News
  4. NPR
  5. 1976 Republican Primary
  6. 1980 Democratic Primary
  7. 1982 Republican Primary
  8. NPR - The Unthinkable 
  9. 1940 Democratic Presidential Primary



Thursday, June 27, 2019

2020 Presidential Poll - July 2019


Who would you vote for?


If the election was today who would you vote for?
 
pollcode.com free polls

If the election was today who would you vote for?

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Presidential Libraries Museums


There are currently thirteen (13) Presidential Libraries in the National Archives System. Although the fourteenth one is planned.

Truman Presidential Library in Independence, MO. 

President Address City State Year Opened Visited
Herbert Hoover 210 Parkside Dr West Branch IA 1962
Franklin D. Rosevelt 4079 Albany Post Rd Hyde Park NY 1940
Harry S Truman 500 W. U.S. Highway 24 Independence  MO 1957   X
Dwight D Eisenhower 200 SE 4th St Abilene KS 1947 X
John F Kennedy Columbia Point Boston MA 1979
Lyndon B Johnson 2313 Red River Street Austin TX 1971 X
Richard Nixon 18001 Yorba Linda Blvd Yorba Linda CA 2007
Gerald Ford 303 Pearl Street NW Grand Rapids MI 1981
Jimmy Carter 441 Freedom Parkway Atlanta GA 1986 X
Ronald Reagan 40 Presidential Dr Simi Valley CA 1991
George H. W. Bush 1000 George Bush Drive West College Station TX 1997
Bill Clinton 1200 President Clinton Ave Little Rock  AR 2004
George W Bush 2943 SMU Boulevard Dallas TX 2013
Barrack Obama 5235 S Harper Ct Chicago IL Not Yet Built



In addition to the official list above, there are a number of other museums and libraries for the 45 Presidents:



President Address City State Visited
Abraham Lincoln Library 112 N. Sixth St Springfield  IL
Ronald Reagan birthplace Tampico IL X

Woodrow Wilson Library
18 North Coalter St Staunton VA
Lincoln's Cottage 3700 N. Capitol St.NW Washington DC
Woodrow Wilson Boyhood home 19 Seventh St Augusta GA
Ronald Reagan Boyhood home 810 S. Hennepin Avenue  Dixon IL

Monday, June 10, 2019

The Presidents by Party

Presidents by Party

There have been 45 Presidents to date. Below is a chart that list the Presidents by party.
From that we can see, that even though the Democrats have been in existance longer, the Republicans have had more Presidents.




# Democratic Republican Whig Democratic-Republican Federalist Unafiliated
1 Andrew Jackson Abraham Lincoln William Henry Harrison Thomas Jefferson John Adams George Washington
2 Martin Van Buren Ulysses S. Grant John Tyler James Madison
3 James K. Polk Rutherford B. Hayes Zachary Taylor James Monroe
4 Franklin Pierce James Garfield Millard Fillmore John Quincy Adams
5 James Buchanan Chester A. Arthur
6 Andrew Johnson Benjamin Harrison
7 Grover Cleveland William McKinley
8 Woodrow Wilson Theodore Roosevelt
9 Herbert Hoover William Howard Taft
10 Franklin D Roosevelt William Harding
11 Harry S Truman Calvin Coolidge
12 John F Kennedy Herbert Hoover
13 Lyndon B Johnson Dwight D Eisenhower
14 Jimmy Carter Richard Nixon
15 Bill Clinton Gerald Ford
16 Barack Obama Ronald Reagan
17 George H. W. Bush
18 George W. Bush
19 Donald Trump